With elections looming in problematic Israel, the race seems to be down to right-wing leader Benjamin Netanyahu and center party candidate Zipi Livni. Surprisingly, many Arabs favor a win by the seemingly more hawkish Netanyahu.

The considered opinion of political and business leaders in the region is that Netanyahu offers stability and the possibility of peace, while the inexperienced Livni brings a likelihood of volatility and crisis.

"Livni, the centrist Kadima party candidate, has an unclear agenda at this stage. Although her outlook is assumed to be less hawkish then Netanyahu, there is a strong feeling that her inexperience will lead to increased risk of conflict. She is unlikely to enjoy a firm power base in Israel, and this, combined with her inexperience in foreign and security affairs, means that her handling of crisis will likely escalate situations. Moreover, such a weak leader is too much of an opportunity for groups such as Hamas and Hizbullah to ignore, so crisis situations seem sure to turn up."

Surprisingly, Netanyahu's appeal to the Arab moderates is also based on a higher possibility for peace, the Egyptian scholar explained: "When you look at actions instead of rhetoric, the only Israeli leaders who have actually made land concessions to the Palestinians and the Arab states have been the right wing Israeli prime ministers - Menahim Begin withdrew from occupied Sinai, and Arial Sharon vacated the Israeli settlements in the Gaza strip. In both cases they used their own army to forcefully evict the Israeli settlers from the occupied lands. Israel's right wing leaders are obstinate but they understand reality, and they have the authority to impose peace agreements on their public. A weak leader like Livni will not be able to push through any potential deal with the Palestinians or with Syria."

Peering south along the Mediterranean coast towards Tel Aviv, residents of Beirut also ponder which of the leading candidates for the leadership of Israel offers the best prospects to Lebanon. Much of the city's business community favors opposition leader Netanyahu over government minister Livni.

A trader in the Beirut stock exchange explained it simply: "When the wolves smell weakness they attack, but we have seen these attacks, no matter how successful, always involve an Israeli retribution. Sadly, when this happens it is Lebanon's economy that pays the heavy price for adventure. We are just getting back to being a success after the summer of 2006 nearly wrecked us. We need a few years of quiet now, not a renewal of fighting. Livni is weak and inexperienced, and this is too much for our wolves to resist. Netanyahu is not nice, but he is strong, not a pushover. I believe that he is our best chance for quiet."

A shopkeeper in the city center also had a similar opinion. Smiling at the Saudi tourists filling his shop, he asserted that Netanyahu makes a far less tempting target than Livni. Noting his interest in maintaining peace and quiet in Lebanon, he said that "The problem is that we have some people that just look for an opportunity to make trouble. The best way to avoid this is simply not to give them the opportunity".

The political analysis in the Hizbullah-dominated neighborhoods of Beirut seems to be the same, but with opposite conclusions. When questioned about their opinions, several young men there noted that the election of Livni will open a window of opportunity to make further advances against the Jewish state, noting the fighting in 2006 as a significant victory.

But not everyone was bent on direct action. One man said that even if the resistance movements do nothing, a Livni-lead government would weaken Israel and hasten "the day of their collapse", adding "We should only take action when our leaders decide it is in our interest."

© 2008 Al Bawaba (www.albawaba.com)